Black Friday 2026 is November 27 and Cyber Monday is November 30. Adobe forecasts that traffic from AI services to US retail sites will rise 130% this holiday season, after rising 693% in 2025. Adobe does not say what share of visits or sales that represents. No in-season measurement for November 2026 has been published yet, so every 2026 figure below is a forecast, an October result or a survey. We will update this page after Cyber Week.
Key Dates
| Event | 2026 date |
|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | Thursday, November 26 |
| Black Friday | Friday, November 27 |
| Cyber Monday | Monday, November 30 |
| Cyber Week, as Adobe defines it | November 26 to 30, five days |
Adobe's 2026 Forecast and 2025 Results
Adobe measures US online spending from transactions on retail sites.
| Period | 2025 actual | 2026 forecast | Forecast growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season, November 1 to December 31 | $257.8B | $275.1B | +6.7% |
| Cyber Week | $44.2B | $47.5B | +7.4% |
| Thanksgiving | $6.4B | $6.9B | +8.5% |
| Black Friday | $11.8B | $12.9B | +9.2% |
| Cyber Monday | $14.25B | $15.1B | +6.2% |
AI Traffic to Retail Sites
Adobe counts a visit as AI traffic when a shopper clicks a link to a retail site from an AI chat or browser service.
| Period | 2025 growth, actual | 2026 growth, forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Full season | +693.4% | +130% |
| Thanksgiving | Not published | +159% |
| Black Friday | Not confirmed | +95% |
| Cyber Monday | +670% | +88% |
These are growth rates from a base Adobe itself called "modest". Adobe has not published AI traffic as a share of all visits, so the numbers show direction and speed, not size.
"AI-Referred" and "AI-Influenced" Are Different Numbers
| Source | Figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Adobe | AI traffic +693.4% in holiday 2025 | Clicks from AI assistants to US retail sites |
| Salesforce | $67B of Cyber Week 2025 sales, 20% of global orders | Orders touched by AI, mostly retailers' own on-site recommendations and service. Global, over seven days |
| Salesforce | 20% of 2026 holiday ecommerce traffic from AI agents (forecast) | Traffic, including backend agents and scrapers, not only shoppers |
| Shopify | AI-referred orders up 3.3 times year over year (reported November 3, 2026) | Orders on Shopify stores that came from AI tools. Base not disclosed |
The Salesforce figure is often quoted as if a fifth of purchases came from chat assistants. It does not say that.
Do AI Shoppers Convert Better?
- Shopify: shoppers arriving from AI tools converted 64% more often than organic search visitors, as reported from its third-quarter 2026 call.
- Salesforce: AI search referrals converted at nine times the rate of social media referrals in holiday 2025. The comparison is with social, not with all traffic.
- Adobe survey: among people who have used AI to shop online, 77% said they felt more confident in the purchase and 69% said they were less likely to return it.
How Many Shoppers Will Use AI?
Surveys range from 16% to 56% because they ask different questions.
| Survey | Finding | Sample |
|---|---|---|
| BCG | 56% plan to shop with generative AI this Black Friday, up from 51% in 2025 and 35% in 2024 | Not stated |
| Visa and Morning Consult | 54% have used AI for at least one shopping task, up from 47%. 23% trust it to handle payment | 1,016 US adults, September 26 to October 2, 2026 |
| Deloitte | 39% say generative AI is their main tool for at least one holiday shopping task. 16% would let it complete a purchase | 4,000 US consumers, August 26 to September 10, 2026 |
| Gartner | 34% are very or extremely willing to use AI tools for gift recommendations | 1,004 US consumers, August 2026 |
| Bain | 24% of online shoppers plan to begin holiday shopping on a generative AI platform, up from 17% | 1,105 US consumers, August 2026 |
Read together: about half of US shoppers use AI somewhere in the process, about a quarter start there, and about one in six would let it pay. Deloitte also found that 66% worry about how their data is used.
What the Assistants Can Do at Checkout
| Assistant | Status in November 2026 |
|---|---|
| ChatGPT | OpenAI launched a wallet on November 13, 2026 that lets its agents check out with a saved card, limited to US Pro subscribers, according to TechCrunch and CNBC. Its earlier Instant Checkout was scaled back in March 2026 |
| Google Search and Gemini | Google says its commerce protocol enables direct checkout for hundreds of thousands of brands and retailers, with price-drop tracking in a shared cart |
| Amazon | Alexa for Shopping, used by more than 400 million customers in the past 12 months, with interactions up 570%, per Amazon's third-quarter results |
| Walmart | Sparky added list-to-cart and photo-to-cart features on October 30, 2026, and also works inside ChatGPT and Gemini |
| Microsoft Copilot | Copilot Checkout launched in the US in January 2026. No usage figures published |
For more detail see which AI assistants can check out and Alexa for Shopping statistics.
Other 2026 Holiday Forecasts
| Source | Forecast | Scope |
|---|---|---|
| National Retail Federation | $1.013 trillion, +4.2% | US retail sales, November and December, excluding autos, fuel and restaurants |
| Bain | $1.016 trillion, +4.5%. Non-store sales +9% | US holiday sales |
| Deloitte | Ecommerce +7.5% to +8.4% | November 2026 to January 2027 |
| Adobe | October 6-7 sales event: $9.86B, +8.5% (actual) | US online, all retailers |
What This Means for Retailers
- The AI channel is growing fast from a small base. Plan for it, and do not move budget on a growth rate alone.
- Research moves first, payment later. Shoppers use AI to compare and shortlist far more than to pay, so product data and reviews matter more than checkout integrations this season.
- Measure referrals yourself. Published figures use different definitions. Your own analytics will show what AI assistants send you.
Methodology
Adobe figures come from its 2026 forecast of September 28, 2026 and its 2025 season results. Salesforce figures come from its Cyber Week 2025 release and 2026 predictions. Surveys are from Deloitte, Bain, Visa, BCG and Gartner. Shopify's figures were reported by trade press from its earnings call and we did not read the transcript. Salesforce defines Cyber Week as seven days and Adobe as five, so their totals are not comparable. Status as of November 13, 2026.