Secondary-market trades on Carta, Forge, EquityZen, and EquityBee are the cleanest pre-IPO pricing signal available for private AI labs. Through Q1 and Q2 2026, secondary prices for Anthropic implied valuations between $750 billion and $1.05 trillion (well above the Series G mark of $380 billion). OpenAI secondary trades imply pricing above the Q1 primary mark of $750 billion fully diluted. This page covers what these signals tell us about likely IPO pricing and what to read into the divergence between primary and secondary marks.
Why secondary signals matter for IPO pricing
Primary financing rounds reflect what new institutional investors pay for new equity at terms negotiated by management. Secondary trades reflect what marginal buyers pay for existing equity from employees and earlier investors. When secondary prices trade meaningfully above the most recent primary mark, the market is signaling that institutional demand at the primary mark was constrained by management's pricing discipline rather than by limited investor appetite.
For IPO pricing, secondary marks often anchor the upper end of the roadshow indicative range. The bookrunners use secondary prints as evidence of demand at higher levels even when the primary mark suggests more conservative pricing.
Current secondary signal landscape
| Lab | Last primary mark | Recent secondary implied valuation | Secondary premium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | $380B (Feb 2026 Series G) | $750B-$1.05T (Q1-Q2 2026) | ~2.0x-2.8x |
| OpenAI | $750B fully diluted (Q1 2026) | Above primary mark | ~1.1x-1.3x |
| xAI | ~$200B | Above primary mark | ~1.1x-1.5x |
| Databricks | $62B+ | Roughly in line | ~1.0x |
| Mistral | $13.7B | Limited secondary activity | N/A |
The Anthropic premium is the most extreme of the cohort, reflecting a combination of strong demand, scarce supply of shares available in the secondary market, and the absence of a primary round since February 2026.
What to watch as IPO windows open
Three signals matter most. First, the secondary premium compression as primary windows open: if secondary prices fall toward primary marks, it suggests institutional demand was the binding constraint and IPO pricing will be conservative. If secondary prices hold or rise, it suggests retail and institutional public-market demand will exceed private-market demand. Second, the spread between named-trade venues (Forge, EquityZen) and tender-offer pricing organized by the company itself. Third, the volume of secondary activity, which signals breadth of buyer interest beyond a handful of marginal trades.