How big is the market for purchases made by AI agents on behalf of users? This report forecasts agentic commerce gross merchandise value, the total dollar value of goods and services transacted through AI agents, from 2026 through 2030. Our base case puts global agent-mediated GMV at $41 billion in 2026, rising to $1.1 trillion by 2030 as agent reliability, payment rails, and merchant readiness mature together. The growth is not linear. It inflects in 2028 once agent-payable checkout becomes table stakes for large retailers.
Global GMV Forecast 2026-2030
The base case assumes steady improvement in checkout success and merchant adoption. The figures below are modeled annual agent-mediated GMV.
| Year | Agent-mediated GMV | YoY growth | Share of total ecommerce |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $41B | — | 0.6% |
| 2027 | $118B | 188% | 1.5% |
| 2028 | $310B | 163% | 3.6% |
| 2029 | $640B | 106% | 6.8% |
| 2030 | $1,100B | 72% | 10.4% |
GMV by Region (2030 Base Case)
North America leads early because agent platforms launched there first, but Asia Pacific closes the gap fastest.
| Region | 2026 GMV | 2030 GMV | 2030 share |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $21B | $430B | 39% |
| Asia Pacific | $9B | $360B | 33% |
| Europe | $8B | $220B | 20% |
| Latin America | $2B | $55B | 5% |
| Middle East and Africa | $1B | $35B | 3% |
Key Findings
- A 27x expansion in four years. Base-case agent-mediated GMV grows from $41B in 2026 to $1.1 trillion in 2030, reaching about 10% of all ecommerce.
- 2028 is the inflection year. Once large retailers adopt agent-payable checkout, success rates rise and GMV growth re-accelerates rather than tapering.
- Asia Pacific is the fastest mover. The region grows 40x over the period, narrowing North America's early lead to a 6-point share gap by 2030.
Methodology
Data is compiled from the Presenc AI monitoring platform plus public sources, with Presenc AI estimates used where authoritative figures are unavailable. Agent transaction metrics are modeled from observed agent traffic and vendor-reported benchmarks. Projections use compound growth modeling anchored to observed agent adoption and checkout success trends. Findings are reviewed quarterly. Last update June 2026.
How Presenc AI Helps
A trillion-dollar channel only pays out to brands that agents can find and transact with. Presenc AI measures your slice of agent traffic today and benchmarks your readiness against the forecast curve. Track which AI agents hit your site and assess your agent-payable readiness so you are positioned for the 2028 inflection rather than chasing it.